Points of Interest – Summer 2020
In this edition of our quarterly newsletter, Points of Interest, we review the performance of the stock market during 2019. Despite significant concerns over the geo-political situation, the Australian stock market recorded its highest annual return since 2009. This was to a large extent the result of monetary stimulus from the Reserve Bank. Looking ahead to 2020 we expect low interest rates to continue to push investors towards higher-risk investments in a search for a reasonable yield.
Points of Interest – Spring 2019
In this edition of our quarterly newsletter, Points of Interest, we discuss ongoing geo-political tensions which have weighed on markets over the quarter. The ongoing trade dispute between the US and China is one cause for concern, while the Brexit issue only adds to the sense of uncertainty.
Call me John
This article, by Justin Baiocchi, was originally published in The Northern Daily Leader on 25 February 2017.
Now that I am on the wrong side of 40 (to be fair, I’ve been on the wrong side for some time), I have noticed a very unwelcome development. Every night, while I sleep, something or someone, is slowly transplanting John Howard’s eyebrows onto my own. It started off innocently enough – a stray eyebrow hair here, the odd misaligned hair over there…now however, whomever is doing this to me is working very diligently at giving me the full John Howard makeover. My hair appears to be in on the act too, rapidly pushing me to a place where I’ll be forced to ask the hairdresser for the ‘John Howard’ look when it comes time to discussing potential styles. It’s got to the point where complete strangers stop me in the street to discuss WorkChoices. Seriously though, why is it, that as you age your body stops growing where you want it to keep going – your brain, your hair – but keeps growing just where you want it to stop – your nose, your ears and your eyebrows? Why can’t your body direct its meagre resources to where they are needed most? Don’t give me ears the size of dinner plates, give me a head of hair that would make an Afghan Hound proud.
The slow and insidious process of relocating John Howard’s eyebrows onto my own is an example of significant change happening at such a slow pace that it is easily missed. I only noticed it myself when my wife lunged at me one day with the garden shears and a whipper snipper. It’s very easy to miss the fact that a series of small, seemingly unimportant changes, actually amount to a complete paradigm shift. Global events over the past twelve months may well represent one of those occasions. Political developments in the UK, US and Europe may not individually be earth-shattering, but taken together there is evidence to suggest that serious change is afoot. Brexit, Trump and political events in Europe all have underlying commonalities which should not be ignored. From an investment perspective, change can be both an opportunity and a threat. The threat, of course, is that political change brings economic and financial change which your investments are ill-equipped to manage. The opportunity is to make changes to your investment approach such that you are ahead of the curve. It may well be that we are entering a period where return of your capital is more important than return on your capital. Taking a conservative approach is of course one which John Howard himself would approve.
A Vegemite sandwich
This article, by Justin Baiocchi, was originally published in The Northern Daily Leader on 11 February 2017.
When it comes to lunch at work, I’m a little bit old school, preferring to bring lunch to the office from home, rather than popping out to grab a sandwich from a shop or takeaway. It’s often a healthier choice and generally much cheaper too. One day last week I was particularly looking forward to lunch – the previous night’s dinner had been an Asian-style BBQ pork salad; a refreshing mix of chargrilled pork, fresh salads, garlic, chilli and coriander. A perfect dinner during the hot summer months. There were enough leftovers to cater for lunch the next day and Liz offered to make a sandwich with the leftovers for me to take to work. So you can imagine my sense of anticipation the next day when I sat down to eat my lunch while reading the Financial Review, as is my usual habit. You can also imagine my disappointment when I opened my lunch box to find only a sad looking Vegemite sandwich. To be fair, the lunchbox itself should have been a giveaway – it has been a long time since I demanded that my lunch was packaged in a Star Wars lunchbox.
As great as my disappointment was, I can only imagine how great was Jack’s surprise (at about the same time as I discovered my Vegemite sandwich) at finding his lunch was a delicious Asian-style BBQ pork salad sambo. No doubt his fellow classmates in Year 1 were impressed with Jack’s sophisticated palate. While most them were most likely also having a Vegemite or jam sandwich, Jack was on the cutting edge of Asian fusion style cuisine. Alas, I know for a fact that all he did was take two small bites out of the crust and politely returned the sandwich to his mum, along with the request that he never ever again be sent to school with such a disgusting lunch.
For my part, as I unenthusiastically ate my Vegemite sandwich, I reflected on the fact that this experience was not unlike that of investing. When you make an investment decision, what you get is not always what you expect. You may be expecting annual returns of 10% plus, but may find that the real outcome is something entirely different. As far as investing goes, the potential for disappointment in the outcome is part of the territory. Just as there are risks in getting someone else to make your lunch for you, there are risks in investing too. Unfortunately, what you end up with may not be so much gourmet, as garbage.
Points of Interest – Winter 2019
In this edition of our quarterly newsletter, Points of Interest, we highlight the positive impact that falling interest rates in Australia (and overseas) has had on the domestic stock market, although pointing out that higher share prices are not necessarily a good indicator of the strength of the economy. We also discuss the positive impact of the recent Federal election on the domestic stock market.
Points of Interest – Autumn 2019
In this edition of our quarterly newsletter, Points of Interest, we discuss the performance of financial markets over the first quarter of 2019, which saw significant gains in both the Australian and overseas stock markets. We review the primary reasons for this improvement over the December quarter, including the unexpected decision by the US Fed to provide additional monetary assistance to the US economy.
Points of Interest – Summer 2019
In this edition of our quarterly newsletter, Points of Interest, we review key financial events and the performance of markets over the past year. 2018 proved to be a disappointing year for investors, with significant falls in almost every asset class. We discuss some of the key reasons for this performance and look ahead to 2019.
This article, by Justin Baiocchi, was originally published in The Northern Daily Leader on 29 January 2017.
This past week I have been busy ‘renovating’ the laundry at home. I’ve put the word renovating in inverted commas as, theoretically what I have been doing is a renovation, but in practice it’s in a category all of its own. When the previous owners added on the laundry extension they stopped after putting in the framework and studs – there were no walls or ceiling and no flooring on the slab. As you can imagine, this became a haven for spiders, bugs, dust, dirt, snakes and who knows what else. I could feel my white business shirts cringe every time I took them into the laundry for a wash. Accidentally dropping a shirt on the floor was enough to make you cry.
Armed with some nails, a hammer and lacking only really a clue about what I was doing, I set about finishing off the laundry. To be honest, looking at the finished article, I wonder why I bothered. I’m not entirely sure I have made an improvement on the dirt, dust and spider heaven. It’s as though you got a builder in to do the work for you, but before he could start you got him drunk and then made him work in the dark. I now have to find a way of convincing my wife that she need not go into the laundry ever again and we’re better off just buying new clothes every time something needs a wash. An expensive solution yes, but better than letting her see my unhandiwork in the laundry.
As I stood there and reluctantly viewed my ‘renovation’ job, it occurred to me that my attempt to finish the laundry was not unlike the approach that many people adopt to looking after their finances. Just because I had the tools to tackle the laundry (the hammer and nails), didn’t mean I had the knowledge how to use those tools to do the job at hand. In the same manner, the ability exists for you to manage your own investments and finances – the tools are there, but that doesn’t mean you necessarily know how to use them. In the wrong hands, an online stockbroking account can be more dangerous than a badly wielded hammer (and I saw a lot of that during the past week, and felt it in my thumbs too). The convenient and cheaper approach of doing it yourself is not always best. Getting professional assistance may be more costly, but the outcome usually more than justifies the cost. Ask yourself if you realistically have the skills required; and if you don’t, get some help. A badly managed retirement plan is much more serious than a badly mangled renovation job.
Economic and Investment Update – September 2016
In September 2016 we provided an update to clients regarding the state of the global economy and financial markets. This included a discussion on demographics and the impact that changes in global birth rates and ageing rates is having on the global economy.
Points of Interest – Spring 2018
In this edition of our quarterly newsletter, Points of Interest, we take an in-depth look at interest rates and the relationship between changes in rates and bond yields. As part of this, we discuss the issue of the ‘inverted yield curve’, which is a financial signal which has been quite reliable in predicting a recession within 12 to 18 months.